Page 4 - INSS | 2019-2020

2020 Strategic Overview:
Growing Challenges to Israel’s Current Strategy

Itai Brun and Itai Shapira

Haim Zach / GPO

Snapshot Recommendations

An abundance of national security challenges In the coming months – requisite caution • The
on several fronts • Current Israeli policy could new government should update Israel’s national
lead to escalation and to full-scale war • Israel’s security strategy, while defining priorities
political crisis obstructs the development of a among the respective fronts and debating
relevant strategy fundamental security concepts

Increased Likelihood of War

At the core of the strategic assessment for 2020 stands the tension between Israel’s evident strength and its success
in various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will prove temporary and fragile. This tension
stems from a series of factors that in the coming year could lead to a large-scale conflict and even to war, and involves
Israel’s approach to a series of substantive national security challenges: Iran’s increasing audacity – on the nuclear
issue, in its efforts at force buildup in Syria and other arenas, and in its efforts to station operational capabilities
against Israel; Hezbollah’s efforts to achieve large-scale precision attack capabilities; and Hamas’s efforts to ease
the pressure on Gaza and influence the parameters for an arrangement with Israel. The targeted killing of Iranian
Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani by the United States in early 2020 lends added weight to the assessment
regarding the potential for escalation. The event creates a new context and might become a strategic turning point.
These and other challenges are unfolding against the backdrop of an ongoing political crisis in Israel and strategic
competition between the world powers, which in turn generates functional difficulties in the international system.
The unequivocal conclusion from these developments is the need for Israel to formulate a new strategy.

2 STRATEGIC SURVEY FOR ISRAEL