Page 44 - INSS | 2019-2020

The Trump administration has formulated a different solution than those
raised by previous administrations, including a decline in the centrality of the
two-state solution and a change in the approach toward the illegality of the
settlements. It is not clear whether and when the plan will be made public,
but in any case, it will likely be rejected by the Palestinian leadership and
Jordan, and met with doubt and reservation by the rest of the Arab states.
In contrast, the Israeli government is likely to accept the principles of the
plan. The rationale underlying the plan, which holds that the reality on the
ground cannot be ignored, serves Israel’s interests both as a guideline for
future negotiations and for encouraging Palestinian recognition of the fact that time is not on their side. The Israeli
government should use the plan in order to help create a reality of two distinct political entities – not by casting the
PA as an opponent of peace, but by incorporating it as a necessary partner in the process of gradual separation in
the West Bank.

In addition, in recent years legislative ground is being prepared in Israel for annexation of settlements in the West
Bank, joining Prime Minister Netanyahu’s promise to annex the Jordan Valley. Annexation of all or part of the West
Bank denotes a change in the fundamental vision of the State of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, and moral
state, with recognized borders and international legitimacy. Israeli annexation steps would likely encounter sweeping
vehement Palestinian and international opposition. In addition, steps in this direction would likely harm Israel’s
relations with Jordan and Egypt, lead to rising violence and terrorism, and bring about the end of the security
cooperation with the PA. Therefore, annexation steps should be avoided, even if facilitated by the Trump plan.

Regarding relations with Jordan, Israel is seen in the Kingdom as responsible for the political deadlock and for the
Trump plan, which is biased in its favor. Most of the Jordanian public is convinced that the Israeli right wing sees
Jordan as an alternative homeland for the Palestinians. Advancement of annexation encourages this notion, hence
threatening the future of peaceful relations. Another challenge is maintaining the status quo on the Temple Mount,
and Jordan’s potential inability to fulfill its role as custodian of the holy places. Therefore, along with presenting
a political vision to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Israeli government should provide economic assistance to
Jordan, cultivate the fruits of peace, and strengthen the strategic bilateral dialogue.

Policy Options for Israel toward Hamas in the Gaza Strip

Conflict Severed contact Conditions and Long term ceasefire Campaign to
management between Gaza and support for arrangement between topple Hamas’s

Israel and intra-Palestinian Israel and Hamas military wing
the West Bank reconciliation

42 STRATEGIC SURVEY FOR ISRAEL