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to a large-scale campaign. However, the organization is subject to internal pressures due to its inability to provide
for the basic needs of Gaza’s population. The PA has likewise weakened, both politically and in public opinion, and
is experiencing a severe economic crisis.

The Palestinian Authority

The immediate objectives of the Palestinian Authority are survival,
consolidation of Fatah’s rule, and guarantee of Abbas’s legacy. The PA is
currently on the horns of a dilemma – how to progress toward its goals
without losing the achievements it has scored since the Oslo Accords. While
senior figures threaten from time to time to dismantle the PA and “return
the keys” to Israel, in practice it appears that the PA is wary of such a move.

The economic challenge is a central issue. In early 2019, the PA announced that it would stop receiving tax revenues
collected by Israel, following the Israeli government’s decision to deduct from the sum the payments transferred to
the families of prisoners and terrorists killed in action (“martyrs”). The tax funds from Israel constitute a significant
portion of the Palestinian Authority’s total income and part of its GDP. While there are calls in the PA to completely
sever its financial connection to Israel, they are not viable given the PA’s dependence on Israel in terms of employment
and trade: most of the exports from the PA are intended for Israel, and one tenth of the workforce is employed in
Israel. This problematic dependence is compounded by the cut in American and UNRWA funding, and by difficulties
in gaining external financial assistance from other sources, particularly the Arab states. In an effort to temper the
impending crisis, Israel and the PA formulated a temporary solution to transfer funds that would enable the PA to
weather 2019 with relative quiet. Nonetheless, against this financial plight, the PA was forced to cut salaries in half and
reduce expenditures. Those employed in the public sector – and constitute the significant employment sector – are
the principal casualties, including members of the security apparatuses, which in no small measure are responsible
for the current stability in the West Bank. Beyond the economic difficulty, the security apparatuses are confronting
a population that is challenging their role as enforcers of law and order, while general public confidence in the PA
has reached a low point, in light of performance failures and corruption.

At the same time, coordination between the PA security forces and the IDF continues, in accordance with the PA’s
interest in preventing an outbreak of violence and in light of Abbas’s consistent rejection of the path of terrorism.
This is despite polls showing increasing support among the Palestinian public for violent struggle.

The Palestinian Authority’s ability to challenge Israel, through economic disengagement and cessation of security
coordination or through political struggle in international forums, is limited. Furthermore, the Palestinian issue is
gradually losing its centrality and importance in regional and international discourse. Indeed, Israel takes pride in
having created overt and covert partnerships with Arab states that formerly glorified the Palestinian struggle. While
the PA is still recognized as the official Palestinian representative and as the link connecting the Palestinians to the
international community in general and to the Arab world in particular, its influence has ebbed, as the Palestinian
issue has been relegated to the sidelines.

Significance and a Look to the Future

Despite Mahmoud Abbas’s unchallenged leadership as head of the PLO, the Palestinian Authority, and the Fatah
movement, his age and his health necessitate looking toward the future. Beneath the surface, competition is underway
over the leadership on the day after Abbas, which could lead to one of the following scenarios:

Separation of powers among the three positions (chair of the PLO, president of the PA, and head of Fatah) and
the election of a collective leadership (medium-high probability)

Election of a single leader from Fatah by the Central Committee as an heir to Abbas (medium-high probability)

38 STRATEGIC SURVEY FOR ISRAEL