Page 58 - INSS | 2019-2020

Fundamental National Security Concepts: Guidelines for 2020

Deterrence – Given the dynamics of escalation and the multiple challenges “below the threshold,”
is this concept still viable or relevant? Have stabilizing elements indeed been weakened?

Escalation – Does current policy lead to escalation? What is the image of escalation (days of battle, wide-scale
conflict, war)? What are the differences and boundaries between the various arenas? What can result from escalation?

Preventive attack – Is a preventive attack necessary given the emerging threat on the northern front?
What are prerequisites for such a move? What would be the correct time? What achievements should result?
What implications would there be?

Arrangement – Is there a way to neutralize threats without a conflict? If so, what is the correct format for each
theater? What are the immediate and long term costs that are justified for an arrangement?

D ecision – What does this mean? Is clear, absolute decision even possible in today’s world? How long would it
take? At what cost? How can it be achieved?

The Need for a New Israeli Grand Strategy

After a decade and a half of stagnation in strategic thinking, Israel’s grand strategy must be updated. A new Israeli
government must lead a process of renewing Israel’s security concept and defense policy, with a focus on the
following points:

Recognizing the tension between importance and urgency: what is urgent (the Gaza Strip and the Iranian buildup
in Syria) ought to be of a lower priority than what is important – the Iranian nuclear project and the precision
missile project in Lebanon.

In any event of deterioration or escalation, it must be clear who is to be targeted: the Iranian proxy force, the host
states, or Iran itself.

It is essential to analyze successes and failures over the past two decades; to integrate the political dimension
and the legitimacy dimension into strategic thinking; to formulate communication mechanisms before a conflict
erupts; to devise exit strategies and mechanisms; and to address issues of military buildup.

What follows are ten central recommendations for the new Israeli government that derive from the overview above
– some requiring immediate discussion and others less urgent, though perhaps more important. Above all is the
underlying recommendation for the need to formulate an updated grand strategy for Israel. Fundamental concepts
such as deterrence, decision, escalation, preventive attack, and political arrangement must be clarified and validated.
A new government in Israel should lead a process of renewing the security concept and the security policy.

1. Iran’s Nuclear Program

The United States withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and the renewal of sanctions were based on the
expectation that one of the following three scenarios would take place: the collapse of the Iranian regime; a change in
its behavior; or an American attack on Iran in response to Iranian progress toward the nuclear threshold. These three
scenarios were not realized and are unlikely to be realized in the future, even after a series of Iranian provocations in
the conventional realm led the United States to attack Shiite militia bases in Iraq and Syria and kill Qasem Soleimani.
Israel must prepare for more realistic scenarios – renewed negotiations (now less likely after the killing of Soleimani);

56 STRATEGIC SURVEY FOR ISRAEL