Page 23 - INSS | 2019-2020

The Conflict with Israel

Israel has established itself as a leading regional actor working to limit the influence of the radical Shiite axis, and to
that end maintains increasing cooperation with the pragmatic Sunni states. Although the conflict with Israel is still
present in the consciousness of publics across the region, in most states it is not a central issue preoccupying the
regimes. The Palestinian predicament is almost entirely absent from the regional agenda, notwithstanding American
efforts to increase the involvement of Arab states therein. However, breaking the glass ceiling of cooperation with
the pragmatic Sunni states remains contingent on making progress in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Recommendations

Israel must repair its relations with Jordan, which are currently in the midst of a crisis, by renewing the bilateral dialogue
at the highest levels to clarify all outstanding issues between the two states. In the current regional circumstances,
Israel must prepare to cope with Iranian influence mostly on its own, ideally by crafting a policy based partly on
American support and on a (limited) partnership with the pragmatic Sunni states. At the same time, Israel must
strengthen its cooperation with Jordan and Egypt, especially in the economic, energy, and counter-terrorism realms.
Israel must prepare for the increasing likelihood that the Arab Gulf states will invest more in advanced weaponry
(both American and Russian) and even seriously examine paths to nuclearization. In addition, Israel must prepare for
increased tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and more clearly delineate the extent of Israeli support for Cyprus.
As for Turkey, Israel must continue to limit both Ankara’s activities in Jerusalem and its involvement with Israel’s
Arab citizens, while continuing to expose Hamas’s activities on Turkish soil.

THAIER AL-SUDANI

US security forces on the roof of the US embassy in Baghdad when it was under attack by local protesters. Will Iraq be a theater of US-Iran
confrontation?

THE REGIONAL SYSTEM 21