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Iraq

The 2018 elections were intended to increase stability in Iraq following the defeat of ISIS (despite the organization’s
ongoing presence). However, mass protests in response to charges of regime corruption and the failure of the regime
to address economic problems threaten stability and increase the risk of civil war. The unrest is heightened by the
possibility that particularly after the killing of Soleimani and Iran’s response, Iraq will become a theater for Iran-
US confrontation. The anti-Iran sentiment prevalent in the protests, and the risk it poses to Tehran, heightens the
motivation of Iran and the allied Shiite militias to try to prevent any damage to Iranian influence and achieve their
goal of the withdrawal of American forces.

Yemen

The fighting in Yemen has been deadlocked for three years, and the motivation of the warring parties to continue
the conflict has declined. Indeed, the UAE announced its withdrawal in June 2019; the Houthis declared a unilateral
ceasefire regarding Saudi territory in September; Emirati-backed southern separatists and the Saudi-backed Central
Government of Yemen reached a power-sharing agreement in November; and Saudi airstrikes decreased markedly.
However, devising a solution that re-unifies Yemen and satisfies key interests of the numerous actors involved will
remain a significant, perhaps insurmountable, challenge. The passing of Sultan Qaboos of Oman may also prove a
setback for the Saudi-Houthi peace talks that he had mediated.

North Africa and Sudan

The countries of North Africa (the Maghreb) and Sudan occupy various points on the stability spectrum. In Libya,
a new round of the civil war broke out in April. In Algeria, 82-year-old President Abdelaziz Bouteflika submitted his
resignation after 20 years in power, but in the elections held in December (largely under the military’s purview), a
former minister associated with the Bouteflika regime was elected. Meanwhile, mass weekly demonstrations against
the authorities continue. Prospects seem more optimistic in Sudan, where after months of popular protests against
the regime, the army ousted President Omar al-Bashir after a 30-year tenure. Tunisia and Morocco had a relatively
stable year, with a noteworthy achievement of a third round of national elections in the birthplace of the Arab Spring.

Salafi-Jihadists

As a political entity governing territory, the Islamic State (ISIS) has all but disappeared following the organization’s
military defeat and the loss of its control over territory in Syria and Iraq, and its leader was killed in an American
military operation. However, ISIS continues to operate as a terrorist organization with ties to similarly inclined Salafi-
jihadist terror organizations, terror networks, and individuals operating around the world. In Syria, there remains
considerable potential for the organization to recruit manpower from among those who fought against the regime in
that country’s war. Although Israel is not a top priority for ISIS, the potential exists for terrorist activity against targets
around the world identified with Israel and Jews. Al-Qaeda and its allies also continue to carry out terror attacks in
Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East (principally in Syria, Libya, and the Sinai Peninsula).

THE REGIONAL SYSTEM 23