Page 21 - INSS | 2019-2020

The Struggle over the Regional Order

The first level of this broader struggle over the shape of the Middle East is the contest between four clusters of actors
wishing to see a regional order emerge that will reflect their interests on a variety of core issues: Iranian influence,
relations with the West, territorial integrity of states, political Islam, sectarianism, and modes of governance. The
four camps are:

The radical Shiite axis: This cluster is led by Iran and includes Bashar
al-Assad’s Syria, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shiite militias
operating in various arenas throughout the Middle East, and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad (despite its Sunni identity). Of the four camps, this one is
the most organized and cohesive. It enjoys various means of political,
economic, and military leverage, operates in multiple theaters, and is
progressing in its efforts to create a revisionist, pro-Iranian, and anti-
Western regional order.
The pragmatic Sunni states: This bloc includes Egypt, Jordan, Morocco,
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the other Arab Gulf states
(except Qatar). These actors, with their authoritarian governing structures,
are advancing a pro-Western, anti-Iranian, anti-Islamist, and nationalist vision. The cluster does not generally
operate as a unified camp, as there are divisions among the members, and alliances are often forged on an ad
hoc basis, depending on context and specific interests of the parties. Therefore, this camp has not yet succeeded
in creating a cohesive, unified front against Iran and its allies.
The Sunni Islamists: This group includes supporters of Muslim Brotherhood-style political Islam: Turkey, Qatar,
Hamas, and remnants of the Brotherhood and its derivative movements throughout the region, such as Ennahdha,
the dominant political party in Tunisia. The camp is not always unified, and its influence in the region is waning.
However, the basic idea at its core – that “Islam is the solution” – continues to enjoy broad support in the Middle
East.
The jihadists: This camp includes the Islamic State (ISIS) and al-Qaeda and the terrorist organizations associated
with them. In recent years the camp has suffered a number of serious blows, chief among them the defeat of
ISIS, and this past year the organization’s leader was killed. Thus, the camp’s influence is declining, even as the
Salafi-jihadist ideas at its core continue to find support in the Muslim world.

WAM / Handout via REUTERS

Mohammed bin Salman (l) with Mohammed bin Zayed. The pragmatic camp rests on ad hoc associations and fluid alliances that depend on
context and the interests of particular actors.

THE REGIONAL SYSTEM 19