Page 22 - INSS | 2019-2020

SANA / Handout via REUTERS

Bashar al-Assad (l) and Ali Khamenei. The radical Shiite axis is unified, controlled from Tehran, and aggressive in its operations
across multiple theaters.

The Struggle within the States

The second arena of the regional struggle is evident within the states, where regimes face serious challenges from
their populations. At the heart of this struggle are the region’s fundamental problems, which have only intensified
since the upheaval began nearly a decade ago – problems such as unemployment, corruption, inequality, and over-
reliance on oil or external sources of financial aid. Alongside these problems, states are grappling with identity-related
conflicts reflected in the suppression of minorities, tensions between Sunnis and Shiites, and tribal conflicts. In
the past year, the domestic realm of the regional struggle heated up considerably with the outbreak of large-scale
protests in Sudan, Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and even Iran.

The Region’s Overarching Feature: Instability

As a result of the regional struggle, the Middle East remained inherently unstable in 2019. On one end of the spectrum
were the states that continued to experience war – Yemen, Libya, and Syria. At the other end were states experiencing
relative stability, albeit fragile. These included Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, the Gulf states, and Turkey. In the middle
were the states in which mass protests erupted in response to ongoing fundamental problems, including Sudan,
Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran. The ongoing demonstrations in Iraq and Lebanon are noteworthy for their
anti-sectarianism and the anti-Iranian sentiment expressed among a sizable portion of the demonstrators. The killing
of Qasem Soleimani has also increased anti-American sentiments in Iraq.

An additional result of the struggle is the ongoing phenomenon of constrained sovereignty that continues to characterize
some states. Notwithstanding earlier predictions of its demise, the nation-state has survived as the region’s main
territorial unit and ordering framework. Still, although state borders drawn up in the Sykes-Picot agreement have
survived, sovereignty in many of those states remains limited to the extent that foreign actors – including the Great
Powers, militias, and terrorist organizations – are present. The problem of constrained sovereignty is most glaring
in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya.

In the background of the regional struggle throughout 2019, at least until the killing of Soleimani, the United States
continued to reduce its involvement in the Middle East and Russian influence grew. The radical Shiite axis maintains
cooperation with Russia in many areas, and while the vast majority of the Sunni states are allies or partners of the
United States, they too are strengthening their ties to Russia.

20 STRATEGIC SURVEY FOR ISRAEL