Page 18 - INSS | 2019-2020

The Middle East in the Eyes of the Superpowers

Overall, the Middle East is a declining priority among the leading international actors due to their respective
domestic constraints, concerns of military entanglement, and above all, the increased importance of East Asia.
Consequently, the region is seen mainly as an area for hedging risks or exploiting local opportunities. The United
States’ willingness to invest in the region militarily and politically has ebbed, while China’s interest in the region is
mainly economic. US energy independence is another reason for reduced interest in the Middle East. The vacuums
that developed following the gradual American withdrawal – including the withdrawal of forces from northeastern
Syria, the possibility of reducing the forces in Iraq, and even talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan – are filled partly
by Russia (in the Gulf, Syria, Libya, and Turkey), China (in Afghanistan), and Europe (in diplomatic activity vis-à-vis
Iran and in securing shipping in the Gulf).

REUTERS / Jorge Silva

President Macron (l) and Chancellor Merkel at the G-20 Summit in Osaka, June 2019. Europe on the verge of the post-Merkel era.

The targeted killing of Qasem Soleimani has the potential to spill over to a broad conflict between the United States
and Iran. However, it is not yet clear whether the action is evidence of a tilt in policy by the United States toward a
proactive military campaign against Iran’s regional activity. Alternatively, it may remain a concrete action taken for
prevention and deterrence purposes that was designed to exact a heavy toll following activity by pro-Iranian elements,
directed by Soleimani, including the death of a US citizen (December 27, 2019) and the storming of the US embassy
in Baghdad on December 31. The event prompted the dispatch of additional US forces to the region, but it might
also create a dynamic that leads to the departure of US forces from Iraq and the increase of Iranian influence there.

Implications for Israel

The Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy caused severe
economic difficulties for Iran, which led to large-scale protests in Iran and
reduced the resources at its disposal for furthering its negative efforts in the
region. However, this strategy has not achieved its objective thus far, and it
is unlikely that it alone will bring about the desired change in Iranian policy.
Until the killing of Soleimani, Iran’s regional buildup and subversion did not
receive a significant international response, and remained for Iran’s adversaries
to address, especially Israel. The broader implications of the targeted killing
are not yet clear. For their part, European states, China, and Russia continue
to cast their hope on the diplomatic channel with Iran.

16 STRATEGIC SURVEY FOR ISRAEL