Page 24 - INSS | 2019-2020

Egypt

The constitutional amendments approved in April 2019 strengthened President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s grip on power.
However, the demonstrations that broke out in September reflected a number of economic and social indicators that
threaten the stability of his regime, namely: record poverty levels, a declining standard of living, and growing anger
about corruption. From Israel’s perspective, the most important development in its relationship with Egypt in the
past year was the creation of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum in January. The Forum, which is headquartered
in Cairo, brings together Israel, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, Jordan, Italy, and the Palestinian Authority, and it adds new
geo-political and economic dimensions to Israeli-Egyptian relations.

Jordan

The Jordanian economy continues to suffer from a lack of natural resources and other local sources of income,
along with pressures related to the influx of refugees from Syria. In September 2019, frustration with the economic
situation sparked a month-long teachers’ strike, and the government was forced to increase wages, contrary to the
commitments it made as part of the International Monetary Fund’s recovery program of 2016. There is no serious
alternative to the monarchy, and King Abdullah’s patrons in the Gulf, Europe, and the United States continue to see
the monarchy’s survival as a linchpin of regional stability. In 2019, relations between Israel and Jordan deteriorated
significantly, reaching a nadir with the King’s decision not to renew the 25-year-old bilateral agreement regarding
the Naharayim and Tzofar enclaves.

Saudi Arabia

At the end of 2019, Riyadh’s regional power and standing appear to be waning, and its influence on fundamental
trends in the Middle East has weakened. To improve its standing, Saudi Arabia appears to be seeking to end the crisis
with Qatar and draw down the war in Yemen. In its domestic social and cultural realms, the Kingdom is exhibiting
greater openness, but low oil prices and fears of upsetting the traditional social contract have made it difficult for
the regime to carry out deeper reforms. Saudi Arabia’s military inferiority relative to Iran may lead Riyadh to seek to
reduce tensions with Iran by attempting to reach agreements with its longtime nemesis, as the United Arab Emirates
has done. Such agreements would have implications for a number of issues, chief among them the war in Yemen,
where widening rifts emerged this year in the Riyadh-Abu Dhabi alliance.

Turkey

Despite the Justice and Development Party’s defeat in local elections, Erdogan’s grip on power does not appear to
be in danger, and Turkey even experienced a modest economic recovery. As reflected in its purchase of the S-400
system from Russia (despite warnings from Washington), Ankara is willing to take risks that challenge the NATO
alliance from within. Despite a more assertive regional policy this past year, which included the dispatch of drilling
ships and gunboats to the Eastern Mediterranean and the October 9 military operation in northeastern Syria, Turkey
has not managed to increase its regional clout as leader of the Sunni Islamist camp.

22 STRATEGIC SURVEY FOR ISRAEL