Page 31 - INSS | 2019-2020

to have the potential for escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, which could expand even though neither
side is interested in all-out war. In parallel, Iran is investing in expanding its areas of cooperation with Syria. Alongside
the continued military cooperation and signed military agreements, including the operation of parts of the Latakia
port as well as research and development projects underway on Syrian soil with the assistance of the Syrian military
industry, there is an effort to deepen involvement in economic, educational, and cultural matters.
Iran likewise saw achievements in Yemen: the Houthis’ victories on the ground; the reduction in UAE military
involvement, leading to friction with Saudi Arabia; and the pressure on Saudi Arabia itself, especially in the US
Congress, against the backdrop of human rights violations in the campaign in Yemen. The Iranians in effect have
become the patrons of a future agreement in Yemen (a process that the UN is involved in as well) by creating a
“diplomatic framework” for the Houthis. This agreement will ensure the status of the Houthis themselves, and
through them, Iranian influence.
For Israel, the first significant element is that Iran continues to maintain its assets in the region and has even scored
several achievements, despite difficulties that have arisen in Iraq and Lebanon and in development of its precision
missile project, along with the post-Soleimani challenge. Iran plans to remain in Syria, and is building military,
political, economic, and social infrastructure that will ensure its long term influence in Syria. It has also succeeded in
forging cooperation with Russia in the Syrian space, despite the differences of opinion and the competition between
them for influence in the arena.
The second significant element is that Israel’s toolbox is based mainly on kinetic activity, and is limited to Iran’s
military buildup and the dissemination of knowledge, technology, and weapons to the various theaters (Syria, Iraq,
Lebanon, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip). Israel is also working in the diplomatic sphere to tarnish Iran’s image and
reduce its freedom of operation, but this activity does not address the soft power aspects and civilian/economic
components through which Iran seeks to enhance its influence. Rather, Israel’s policy is primarily reactive in the
face of Iranian policy and activity.

Nazanin Tabatabaee / WANA via REUTERS

Gasoline riots in Iran in November 2019, an expression of the ongoing distress and deep socio-economic processes.
The protests were quashed effectively by the regime with harsh measures.

IRAN 29