Page 33 - INSS | 2019-2020

4 The Northern Arena:
Toward a Large-Scale Conflict

Udi Dekel, Carmit Valensi, and Orna Mizrahi

REUTERS / Omar Sanadiki Recommendations

Snapshot Define responses to Iran and Hezbollah’s
precision missile project, including a possible
Evident risks of escalation stemming from preventive attack • Pressure the Assad regime
Israel’s ongoing campaign between wars • and mobilize superpower support to obstruct
Assad regime recovers and regains territory, Iran’s regional influence
but remains dependent on Russia, Iran, and
Hezbollah

Introduction

The most significant conventional military threat to Israel is posed by the northern arena, specifically, from Iran and
those under its patronage: first and foremost, Hezbollah in Lebanon, followed by the Assad regime and militias active
in Syria and Iraq under Iranian guidance, and Iranian (and Hezbollah) forces active in the Syrian arena. In addition,
Israel must consider how the targeted killing of Soleimani might impact on the northern arena.

In recent years, Israel has adopted a “campaign between wars” strategy in order to reduce the threat in the northern
arena and to obstruct enemy measures that seek to entrench Iranian and pro-Iranian military capabilities and militias
along Israel’s borders, while strengthening deterrence and staving off war. So far, Israel has succeeded in disrupting
Iranian progress, but in the past year the risk of escalation has increased, with Israeli activity focused against two

THE NORTHERN ARENA 31