Page 15 - INSS | 2019-2020

Principal Recommendations

discussed in greater detail in the Net Assessment by INSS Director Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin

Regarding Iran, engage in dialogue with the United States, discussing scenarios that are problematic for Israel

1 (a breakout or “crawl” toward nuclear weapons, an ostensibly improved deal, and military escalation); and in

parallel – prepare a credible option for attack against Iran.

Adapt methods, arenas, and the rate of activity in the campaign between wars, whose current format challenges

2 the potential for achievements without escalation into a large-scale conflict and even war; conduct an in-depth

discussion of a preventive attack against Hezbollah’s precision missile project versus other alternatives.

Prepare for a multi-arena war (a “First Northern War”) as a main reference scenario, and reduce the gaps in the

3 public’s expectations regarding the nature of the war and its possible results; launch a political and military effort

to prevent war and fully exhaust other alternatives for advancing Israel’s objectives in the northern arena.

Strengthen the Palestinian Authority as the sole legitimate entity for a future agreement, and define a political

4 objective of transitional agreements that will shape the separation and sketch the conditions for a future two-

state reality (the INSS plan).

Identify Hamas as the entity temporarily responsible for the Gaza Strip, and achieve an extended ceasefire with

5 it, in return for improving the civilian situation and infrastructure in Gaza, along with efforts to reduce Hamas’s

military buildup. In the case of a clash – focus IDF actions on dealing a very severe blow to Hamas’s military wing.

6 Strengthen the strategic relationship with the United States in a format that does not restrict Israel’s freedom of
action, and restore bipartisan support for Israel.

7 Maintain channels of dialogue and strategic coordination with Russia; develop relations with China, in close
coordination with the United States, and expand Israel’s base of expertise on China; strengthen relations with Europe.

8 Repair relations with Jordan and continue to develop cooperation with the pragmatic Sunni states in the Middle
East, with awareness of its limitations.

Finalize and budget a multi-year plan for the IDF; as part of the plan and from a broad national perspective,

9 continue to refine the discussion on the meaning of military victory and decision in the current era; strengthen

preparedness of the Israeli civilian front by building and empowering new and existing resilience mechanisms.

Continue to strengthen Israel’s relative advantage in the field of cyber security and artificial intelligence technology,

10 as a way to enhance Israel’s qualitative military edge and as a central component of strengthening its economy

and international standing.

2020 STRATEGIC OVERVIEW 13