Page 14 - INSS | 2019-2020

Summary of Israel’s Strategic Situation
2019-2020

Positive Trends Negative Trends

On the one hand, Israel’s strategic situation appears strong On the other hand, Israel has not succeeded in translating
and stable. Israeli deterrence of war is well-established, its power into political achievements, and lacks a complete,
and the likelihood of a deliberate large-scale attack by the cohesive strategy to cope with the many challenges and their
various enemies remains low; there are no new existential diverse features. The radical Shiite axis is solid, aggressive,
threats and the conventional threat remains limited; the and employs a variety of means against Israel; Iran has
alliance with the United States is robust and growing demonstrated audacity in its military activity and nuclear
stronger (particularly in light of Soleimani’s killing), while program; international attention for the Middle East has
Israel succeeds in maintaining good relations with Russia declined, and with it, the willingness to help solve regional
and China as well; Israel has succeeded in delaying some problems; there is much volatility in the Palestinian system,
of Iran’s entrenchment efforts in the Middle East (and in part given the political deadlock vis-à-vis the Palestinian
Soleimani’s killing might heighten this trend); cooperation Authority, the deep distress in the Gaza Strip, and the
with the pragmatic Arab states (Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf limitations of the arrangement with Hamas; the precision
states) is well-established, developing, and in some cases missile project led by Iran progresses despite the efforts to
even public; Israel’s “management” of the Palestinian issue block it; the likelihood of a multi-theater escalation following
through separation of the West Bank from the Gaza Strip does Israeli activity in the campaign between wars has increased,
not restrict its political and military freedom of operation; the and in this context Iran and Hezbollah have already started
level of Palestinian terrorism in the West Bank is relatively using military force in response to Israeli activity; Israeli social
low, and Hamas is deterred from exercising significant force resilience is in decline, and the home front is not prepared
in the Gaza Strip; the Israeli economy is stable; and Israel’s for extensive damage in a military conflict; and the ongoing
assets in technology, the cyber realm, and counter-terrorism political crisis in Israel paralyzes and prevents the possibility
are recognized in the Middle East and worldwide. of taking serious decisions.

Possible Developments in 2020

An Iranian breakout (or “crawl”) on the nuclear issue that shortens the amount of time Iran needs to attain nuclear weapons;
the start of negotiations and perhaps even conclusion of an ostensibly improved agreement between the West and Iran on the
nuclear issue; an unintended “escalation dynamic” versus Iran and in the northern arena following Israeli or American activity in
the campaign between wars, which would lead to a large-scale conflict and even war; progress on Hezbollah’s precision missile
project, to the extent of beginning industrial production on Lebanese soil; the exercise of military force against Israel under
Iranian direction from Syria, Iraq, or Yemen; the exercise of Iranian military force from Iranian territory against Israel; an additional
withdrawal of US troops from the region, and a rise in Russia’s presence and influence; the continued rebuilding of the Syrian
military system, including in the field of chemical weapons; an arrangement with Hamas in Gaza that would limit the exercise of
Israeli force, and could create a crisis with the Palestinian Authority; further weakening of the PA to the point of governmental
chaos in the West Bank, with the succession issue in question; a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip that could lead Hamas to
exercise unrestrained force against Israel; and escalation and large-scale conflict against Gaza following the activity of rogue
groups, contrary to Hamas’s position.

12 STRATEGIC SURVEY FOR ISRAEL